Is Tilray Finally Ready to Wake Up?

 

Could the long awaited turnaround in Tilray finally be getting underway? I'm not ready to declare victory just yet, but I have to admit the chart is beginning to look much more interesting than it has in a very long time.

Take a look at the daily chart above. Over the past two trading days, TLRY has posted two of the strongest bullish sessions we've seen in many months. Just as important as the price action is the volume behind the move. Buying volume has surged, giving us the heaviest green volume days we've seen in quite some time. Whenever I see unusually heavy volume accompanying a strong advance, I pay attention because it often signals that institutional investors may be accumulating shares.

Now shift your attention to the weekly chart on the right. One thing immediately stands out: TLRY has formed a bullish outside reversal bar. That's a pattern I always like to see after a prolonged decline because it tells me buyers stepped in aggressively after sellers initially pushed prices lower. Even more encouraging is where this reversal occurred. The pattern developed right at a major long-term support area, which makes the signal much more meaningful.

Momentum is also beginning to improve. The weekly MACD, one of my favorite momentum indicators, has just generated its first bullish crossover in many months. By itself, a MACD crossover doesn't guarantee higher prices, but when it occurs alongside a bullish reversal pattern, expanding volume, and major support, it certainly gets my attention.

Speaking of volume, this past week's buying volume was the strongest bullish weekly volume we've seen since September 2025. That tells me this wasn't just another ordinary bounce. Someone was buying, and they were buying aggressively.

Fundamentally, Tilray also gave investors something to think about with its recently released fiscal 2026 earnings. The company reported record annual revenue of $915.5 million, an 11% increase over last year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $61.1 million, while gross profit also reached a record level. Looking ahead, management expects adjusted EBITDA to increase again in fiscal 2027 to between $68 million and $75 million. While these numbers don't suddenly transform Tilray into a high-growth company, they do suggest management is making steady progress and that the business is moving in the right direction.

From my perspective, improving fundamentals combined with improving technicals make for an interesting combination.

As for my trading plan, it's very straightforward. A break above last week's high of $4.56 will likely get me long. My stop would be below the major support area near $3.50, giving me approximately $1.00 of downside risk.

Could the trade fail? Absolutely. There are never any guarantees in the stock market. But when I weigh the relatively small amount of risk against the upside potential, especially considering how explosive Tilray has been during previous cannabis rallies, I think it's a risk worth taking. As always, I'm sharing what I'm seeing before the move, not after the fact. Whether TLRY becomes one of the next leaders remains to be seen, but it's definitely a stock I'll be watching very closely

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Don't Ignore This Bullish Signal in TRLV

 

Well, another month has come to a close, and unfortunately it was another disappointing one for cannabis investors. If you've been following my blog for a while, you know I'm a big believer in seasonality. Historically, July has been one of the most bullish months of the year for marijuana stocks, so I came into the month expecting the sector to finally show some life. Instead, we got the exact opposite.

Rather than rallying, cannabis stocks spent most of July drifting lower and breaking important support levels along the way. Needless to say, that wasn't what I expected. Does that change my long-term outlook? Not at all.

The truth is, nobody knows when this sector is finally going to wake up. It could be next week, next month, or several months from now. That's simply the reality of investing in a beaten down sector. But one thing I have learned over the years is that the biggest moves usually begin when the majority of investors have already given up hope. That's why I believe it's so important to have a game plan before the rally begins instead of trying to figure things out after prices have already exploded higher.

One cannabis stock that continues to stand out to me is TRLV. If you look at the daily chart above, you'll notice there really isn't much to get excited about. During the month of July, the stock basically moved sideways with a slight downward bias. If you were only looking at the price chart, you'd probably move on to something else.

But that's exactly why I spend so much time studying relative strength.

Now take a look at the ratio chart comparing TRLV to MSOS. Suddenly, the picture changes. While the stock itself has gone nowhere, the ratio line has been climbing steadily higher. In fact, it's now sitting at a new five-week high. To me, that's a very encouraging sign because it tells me TRLV is quietly outperforming the cannabis ETF even though the sector as a whole continues to struggle.

I've said it many times before: the strongest stocks usually reveal themselves before they actually begin making major price advances. Relative strength often gives us an early clue about where institutional money may be flowing, and right now TRLV is showing exactly the kind of behavior I like to see.

My expectation is that when MSOS finally turns higher and I do believe that day is coming, TRLV has an excellent chance of leading the cannabis sector. That's one of the reasons it remains one of my favorite cannabis holdings, and I continue to believe much higher prices are ahead.

I also want to point out something that's important. Notice the timing of this post. I'm not writing about TRLV after it has already made a huge move or after everyone on social media is talking about it. I'm sharing what I'm seeing before the breakout happens. Will I be right? Of course, there's no guarantee. The market has a way of humbling all of us. But if you're looking for a cannabis stock that is quietly showing leadership while everyone else is focused on the weakness in the sector, I believe TRLV deserves a spot at the top of your watch list.

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Why I'm Watching CURLD Closely Heading Into July

 

Above is a daily chart of CURLD, and in the lower pane you'll see the MACD indicator. One of the patterns I've noticed for this stock is that when the MACD is below the zero line and then produces a bullish crossover, the stock often goes on to rally. It's certainly not a perfect signal, but it has proven to be a useful tool for identifying potential turning points after periods of weakness.

If you look at the chart, you'll see several examples of this setup. At points A, B, C, and D, the MACD crossed higher while still below the zero line. In each case, the stock responded positively. Point C spent more time moving sideways than trending higher, but the bullish crossover still marked the end of the previous decline. The other signals led to much stronger advances.

Now we're seeing a very similar setup develop once again.

The MACD remains below the zero line, but it's beginning to curl upward. If it completes a bullish crossover, I'll be paying very close attention. On its own, I believe this setup has better than a 50% chance of producing a profitable move. However, I've found that no single indicator should ever be relied upon by itself. Instead, I like to stack multiple factors in my favor before committing capital.

That's where seasonality comes into the picture.

Above is a seasonal table for CURLD, and one statistic immediately jumps off the page. Historically, July has been the stock's strongest month, producing a bullish move approximately 85% of the time. Granted, the historical data only goes back to 2018, so we're dealing with a relatively small sample size. Even with that limitation, July stands out by a wide margin as the most favorable month on the calendar for this stock.

When I combine those two factors, a potential MACD buy signal and a very strong seasonal tailwind, I believe the probability of success increases meaningfully. Neither one guarantees the stock will rally, but together they create a setup that deserves my attention.

This is exactly how I like to approach trading. Rather than relying on a single indicator or making emotional decisions, I prefer to look for situations where technical analysis, seasonality, and probability all point in the same direction. The more pieces of evidence I can gather, the more confidence I have in taking a trade.

I'm not blindly buying just because the calendar is turning to July. I still want to see confirmation from the MACD and, ideally, some improvement in price action before getting involved. If those pieces begin to fall into place over the next several trading sessions, CURLD could become one of the more interesting cannabis stocks on my watch list.

I'll be stalking this trade closely in the days ahead to see if everything comes together.

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Will History Repeat Itself for TLRY This July?

 

Above is a monthly chart of TLRY, and as you can see, this has been one of the weakest cannabis stocks in the group. All year long it has displayed relative weakness compared to MSOS, which has spent most of the year moving sideways rather than trending lower. That relative weakness is the main reason I threw in the towel on TLRY several months ago. I simply didn't see a reason to stay invested when there were much stronger opportunities elsewhere in the sector.

Having said that, we're now approaching a very interesting time of year for TLRY from a seasonal perspective.

Historically, July has been TLRY's strongest month. Based on the data we have, the stock has rallied during July roughly 71% of the time. Now, it's important to keep this statistic in perspective because TLRY has only been trading since 2018, so we're working with a relatively small sample size. Even so, July clearly stands out as its most bullish month, making it a seasonal tendency that's worth paying attention to.

Another thing that caught my eye is the monthly chart itself. In recent years, whenever TLRY has managed to take out the high from the month of June, it has often followed through with a respectable rally. There's certainly no guarantee history repeats itself, but it's a pattern that has shown up enough times for me to keep it on my radar.

At the moment, I don't own any shares of TLRY, but I'm beginning to entertain the idea of getting back in if the technical picture starts improving. As many of you know from my post last week, I'm already bullish on MSOS. If MSOS begins a meaningful advance, there's a good chance the rest of the cannabis sector will participate as well. After all, you've probably heard the saying, "A rising tide lifts all boats."

That doesn't necessarily mean TLRY is my favorite cannabis stock. In fact, I still believe there are stronger names in the group, including GTBIF, CURLD, and TRLV  which have shown much better relative strength over the past several months. However, one thing I've learned over the years is that when TLRY finally starts moving, it can catch fire in a hurry. The stock has a history of making explosive moves once momentum returns.

What also makes this setup attractive is the current monthly trading range. Price has been consolidating in a relatively tight range, which helps define risk while leaving the door open for a potentially attractive reward if cannabis stocks begin their next leg higher.

I'll be watching closely to see if this seasonal pattern plays out once again. Let me know what you think in the comments.

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MSOS Holds Critical Support: Is a Trend Reversal Beginning?

 

Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and as you can see, this market has been under pressure for the past couple of weeks. While the recent selling has certainly been frustrating for cannabis investors, I'd like to point out something on the chart that I believe deserves our attention.

Today, MSOS tested a very significant support zone between 4.30 and 4.45 and, more importantly, held it. This isn't just some random price area. If you look back at the chart, you'll notice this support zone first developed toward the end of last year. Since then, it has repeatedly acted as both resistance and support, making it one of the more important technical levels on the chart. Markets have a tendency to remember these types of price zones because they represent areas where buyers and sellers have repeatedly agreed on value.

What I find encouraging is that today's test of support was met with buyers stepping in aggressively enough to push the ETF well off its lows. Instead of closing weak, MSOS finished the session with a strong close above that support zone. When I see a market successfully defend a major level after an extended decline, it tells me that sellers may be losing some of their momentum.

Another positive development was today's noticeable expansion in trading volume. Increased volume doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it does tell me that there was greater participation during today's session. When higher volume accompanies a successful test of an important support level, I pay attention because it often signals institutional interest.

I've also drawn a trendline connecting the June 9th high with the subsequent lower highs. That downtrend has remained intact throughout this recent pullback, but we're getting close to challenging it. If MSOS can trade above today's high of 4.70, I believe that would also confirm a break of that descending trendline.

From my perspective, that's where things start to get interesting. A market that successfully holds a major support zone while simultaneously breaking a downtrend line often has the technical ingredients for at least a tradable bounce. No chart pattern is foolproof, and there are never any guarantees in the market, but when multiple technical factors begin lining up in the same direction, I believe the odds start shifting in favor of the bulls.

For now, I'm simply watching to see if buyers can build on today's strength. A move above 4.70 would be an encouraging next step and could attract additional momentum buyers. Whether this marks the beginning of a larger advance or just a short-term rally remains to be seen, but today's price action was certainly constructive. Let's see how things unfold tomorrow.

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